Wednesday, 10 December 2008

Tesla is Worried About $400 Million Loan Application in Federal Money

Tesla is worried they won't have enough money to build their sedan if they don't get the low cost loan they hoped for from the federal government.

Tesla had applied for $400 million of the $25 billion dollar loan program set up by the government to build high fuel efficient vehicles. But now that money may be used in the 'bailout' of the Big 3 (GM and Chrysler, more than Ford if reports are to be believed.

But some are criticizing the use of the federal government money to build the new hybrid sedan from Tesla. The vehicle is expected to be priced at $57,499 and that makes it a luxury vehicle.

But, the Volt is going to cost close to $40,000, so I'm not sure what people are expecting out of these cars.

The money may be initially used to build expensive luxury cars, but the technology, battery production, and so on are just what's needed to advance the fuel economy goals set out by the government.

The loan money for Tesla will be used to open a $250 million manufacturing facility in San Jose, CA. They are also planning on using the money to expand its drivetrain business, which they sell to other automakers and for a battery-cell production factory.

"We can't move forward with that without a major amount of capital," Musk said. "If we don't get any government funding, then what we need to do is we need to wait until the capital markets recover, which could be a year or two years from now."

Source: Electric car maker seeks U.S. aid | The Detroit News | detnews.com

Tuesday, 9 December 2008

Hybrid Car Sales, November 2008

Hybrid car sales are suffering under the current economic climate.  Sales were down over 50% from last year.  The total number is somwhere in the range of hybrid car sales from 2005.

Some of that is due to last November being one of the best sales months for hybrids and some of it is due to the lowering of gas prices.  But most of it is due, I believe, to the current economic climate.  I spoke just the other day about why I believe Prius sales were down this month, but I would like to point out a few things.

Hybrid cars cost more than their counterparts to purchase.  They are long term decision, and it can take years for the payoff to become noticeable.  With their high purchase price, hybrids are being deemed a luxury right now.  A luxury that, like most cars, are being put off until the economy recovers.

There were no bright spots in the sales numbers this month.  Although the Prius outsold all of the other hybrid vehicles combined, Ford may be the happiest, since their sales were only down by 39%.

Sales numbers for the year are still ok, but it's not looking like next year will be better.  Honda is still up 3% for the year with their Civic Hybrid, and Nissan is also up 9%.   But the Nissan numbers are a little deceiving since the Altima Hybrid began sales in February of last year.

Only two other notes.  The beginning of reported sales from Chrysler was not exactly auspicious with only 35 Aspen and Durango Hybrids sold.  But that's OK since the Aspen and Durango have already been retired this coming month.  The Vue Hybrid sales (not reported) accounted for almost 10% of all Vue sales.  Perhaps that's a good indication that mild hybrids are worth the extra money to some?



Make Model Nov-07 Nov-08 % Change
Honda Accord 204 0 -100%
Honda Civic 3,238 1,043 -68%
Honda Insight 0 0 -
Toyota Prius 16,737 8,660 -48%
Toyota Highlander 2,577 907 -65%
Toyota Camry 5,118 2,174 -58%
Toyota GS 450h 100 42 -58%
Toyota RX 400h 1,674 624 -63%
Toyota LS600hL 170 37 -78%
Ford Escape/Mariner 2,224 1,361 -39%
Nissan Altima 1,191 353 -70%
GM Yukon/Tahoe/Escalade 0 767 -
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 35 -
Total 33,233 15,968 -52%
Make Model Cumulative, 2007 Cumulative, 2008 % Change
Honda Accord 3,255 197 -94%
Honda Civic 29,352 30,261 3%
Honda Insight 3 0 -100%
Toyota Prius 167,009 151,027 -10%
Toyota Highlander 19,261 18,501 -4%
Toyota Camry 49,508 44,384 -10%
Toyota GS 450h 1,776 627 -65%
Toyota RX 400h 15,259 13,737 -10%
Toyota LS600hL 808 930 15%
Ford Escape/Mariner 22,843 18,373 -20%
Nissan Altima 7,424 8,109 9%
GM Yukon/Tahoe/Escalade 0 4,948 -
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 35 -
Total 316,498 291,129 -8%

Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, October 2008
Hybrid Car Sales, November 2007

Monday, 8 December 2008

Production Version of Honda Insight Will Come to Detroit Auto Show

The production version of the new five-seater 2009 Honda Insight will appear at the Detroit Auto Show. The new dedicated hybrid from Honda will go on sale in the spring of 2009. 

The prototype was unveiled at the Paris Auto show, and the production model is very similar.

The North American International Auto Show in Detroit happens in January and will see the introduction of the new HS 250h, an all new dedicated hybrid from Lexus, as well.

Honda has big plans for the five seater, five door hybrid car. They've targeted 200,000 sales a year globally, with 100,000 in North America. Despite the inclusion of their Eco Assist display, the Insight will come at a price tag of under $20,000. (I've seen a reported MSRP of $18,500.)

DOE Hands Out $14 Million in Grants

Ford and GM may be mud over in Congress, but their standing at the DOE hasn't missed a beat. Over the next three years, the DOE will give $14.55 million, with just under half of the money to go to Ford and GM.

The rest of the money is being spread out to four other companies to research, develop and demonstration of advanced vehicle technologies. The money will be handed out over the next three years depending on appropriation each year.

Ford and GM both received grant money ($6.5 million) to develop thermoelectric HVAC systems. The systems involve solid-state devices to cool or heat the occupants without heating the compartment (think seat heaters). Thermoelectric HVAC systems are necessary for electric or even hybrid/plug-in hybrid cars that rely on battery power more than gas power. Ford will be working with the DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop their system.

$6.85 million will be invested in lithium-ion battery materials and manufacturing. The three projects being funded included and industrial process for the production of low-cost positive electrodes, or cathodes, by BASF Catalyst LLC. FMC Corporation is receiving funding to scale up its production of stabilized lithium metal powders, which is used to produce cathodes.

3M Company is being given support to develop advanced materials for negative electrodes, or anodes.

Navistar International Corporation rounds out the recipients by receiving funding to design, demonstrate, and bring to market a tractor-trailer combination and tire package that can reduce the fuel consumption of a heavy-duty vehicle by at least 15%. Navistar will include DOE's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on its team.

Private funding will run the total up to $29.3 million to be invested in the projects.

Friday, 5 December 2008

Pros and Cons of E-REV Like the Chevy Volt (Extended Range Electric Vehicles)

Background
Today's hybrid car runs on a mix of electric power provided by a large battery pack and by a gas engine powered by gasoline.  A full hybrid will run at low speeds on all electric power, while the gas engine takes over at higher speeds.  In order to recharge the battery pack, either the gas engine or regenerative braking pushes energy back into the storage.  You can travel for a mile or three on all electric power, but the gas engine will turn on as the power drain on the battery pack is tremendous.

A plug-in hybrid is basically the same concept, except the battery pack is larger and can be recharged by plugging the car in.  After the juice wears out, the gas engine takes over moving the car along and recharging the battery pack along with regenerative braking.  You can go farther on all electric power, but movement of the car is provided by both the gas and the electric motor.

Extended Range Electric Vehicles (E-REV) are plug-in hybrids, but with a twist.  The gas engine does not move the car.  Instead, it is just there to recharge the battery pack which powers the electric motor which moves the car. 

The electric motor, when powered by a fully charged (plugged in overnight) battery pack, can move the car on its own at whatever speed up to 40-50 miles.  You can count on some re-charging from regenerative braking.  But after that, the gas engine begins recharging the batteries until you can get back to a plug.

Basically, you have an electric car, whose range has been extended by the gas motor.  Current estimates put the Chevy Volt, the most talked about E-REV on the way from GM, fuel economy somewhere between 120 and 200 mpg.  Can you imagine a car that gets 150 mpg?

Pros of E-REVs
What are the benefits of E-REV over plug-in hybrids or just hybrid cars?  To put it simply, you may not need to put gas in the car again.  If your every day commute is short enough and you have access to a plug, you can always charge the battery pack via plug and never need to 'gas up' again.  Plug-ins, since they are designed to run the electric and gas motor in tandem, will need to be re-fueled even if you do plug it in every night.  If you're traveling greater distances, a plug-in can be more efficient, but for most people who drive less than 40 miles a day, the E-REV may be the better choice.

Most conservationists feel that running on electricity, rather than oil, is better for the environment.  I'm not an expert in this area, but I believe it would be easier to regulate the electric companies than it is to regulate the cars.  One source of power, compared to thousands of sources, is just simpler. 

Another positive note is lessening the dependence our country has on oil.  By running more on electric, rather than gas, we can cut our oil use drastically. 

And, for now, electricity is cheaper as a fuel than gasoline is.  Your location will vary depending on how much your electricity costs and when you plug-in (night time electricity can cost less than daytime), but there are some estimates that an all-electric car costs you 2-6 cents per mile to drive.  The Prius, in comparision, costs 21 cents per mile to drive.  The E-REV should end up having fuel costs closer to the bottom of that range.

Of course, there's the cool factor associated with being the first to drive a new type of car.  The first to drive the Insight or Prius off the lot were certainly asked a lot of questions about how and why they were buying the first generation of modern hybrids.  I'm sure the new owners of the E-REVs on the way will get the same kind of notice.

A bonus that may not appeal to many who are interested in the new technology is the performance levels.  Based on hybrid car sales, it's the cars that focus in on fuel economy that are the winners.  But, if applied, E-REV engines can be designed for performance levels instead.  Take a look at what the Karma will be able to do and you can see how powerful these engines can be without even trying.

And then there's the federal government tax breaks on E-REV already in place.  The Chevy Volt is already being estimated to qualify you for up to $7,500 in tax credits.  That's if you qualify and so on and so forth, but that's a pretty nice discount on the sure to be expensive Volt.

And, while we haven't seen them yet, I'm sure the E-REVs coming out will qualify for local perks just like hybrid cars have.  Better parking, access to HOV lanes, local and state tax breaks, etc... Just getting access to the HOV lane can be quite a relief depending on your commute.

Cons of E-REVs
But, of course, it's not all bright and cheery.  When it comes to E-REV technology, there are just as many cons to consider as there are benefits.

For instance, do you even have access to a plug where you park your car?  You probably don't have one at your workplace or wherever else you go, but what about at home?  Do you live in an apt buiding and there's no extension cord long enough? 

It may take 6-8 hours for you to fully re-charge the battery pack.  Will you be able to do that consistently, or will you be relying on the gas engine to charge the batteries all the time?  What if you forget to plug-in?  There goes your fuel economy for the day (I've seen an estimate the Volt may have gotten a rating of 40+ mpg, so it's not like it would be a tragedy).   There are some 'quick chargers' being developed and deployed, but I'm guessing it won't be something so cheap you'll want one in your garage.

Do you have to worry about the battery pack getting depleted if you leave the car parked for a week?  a month?  I'm not sure you could 'jump' these batteries easily.

And, of course, you probably will have to re-fuel with gas, too.  Is that a nuisance factor, having to re-fuel twice?   Plugging in at night (every night), and if your commute is long enough, having to re-fuel too?

And is electricity any cleaner than gas?  There's certainly enough debate on the matter that I'm not weighing in on the matter, but from the reports I've seen, it all depends on where you live and how your electricity is produced.  Yes, you will cut down on oil imports, but oil independence may not be your motivating factor.  If pollution and 'green' products are your motivation, you may have to look closely at this one.

And, of course, there's the biggest CON of all; Cost.  The Chevy Volt is estimated to cost somewhere in the range of $40,000.  That sort of up-front payment is not feasible for a lot of people.   Given the current economic climate, the number of people willing to pay that much for a car is probably going down right now.  Everyone I've spoken to about the Volt, who has heard some things and is getting excited about it, has quickly cooled down when they heard that estimate.  When you look at the Prius, which runs in the $20K range, and the new Insight, which will cost under $19K, some of those who are interested in the Volt may be turned off.

The look of the Volt (not E-REV) has also been a detractor so far.  After seeing the concept vehicle, then seeing the production vehicle, a lot of people took their names off of the 'waiting list.'  Designed for wind tunnels, the Volt came out looking a lot like the Prius and the new Insight.  Mind you, the fuel economy benefits are plentiful, but if you're looking to distinguish yourself from the crowd, the new look doesn't do it. 

How much will it cost you to repair the new vehicle whenever anything goes wrong?  The battery pack may be the most expensive item in the car, so if something goes wrong there, ugghhh...  That's not likely to occur, and I would also expect GM et. al. will continue the high warranty levels they have on their hybrids right now (including battery replacement cost), but that still leaves all the other things going on under the hood. 

Any repairs on a new type of vehicle like this will most likely have to occur at the dealership.  So, if you think you can save money by going to your local mechanic, think again.  They may not even touch it for a routine oil change.  So, even though oil changes and such will occur a lot less often, the overall repair and maintenance cost will most likely end up on the high side since you will have to rely on the dealership repair shops.

Conclusions
So, is an E-REV right for you?  Not if you're making an economic decision it isn't.  But, if you're interested in moving cars away from gasoline, cutting our oil dependence, interested in making yourself noticed, or hate going to fill your car up but don't want the limited range of an all electric vehicle holding you back, then an E-REV may be the car for you.

At least, if you have the money to buy one.

Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Prius is the Worst Performing Car in Sales... Hardly

According to a Treehugger post (Worst Sales Performance of Any Car: Toyota Prius : TreeHugger)
What is the worst performing car (in sales) in America in November? The Prius.
There are a couple of problems with that claim. First, they only look at the most popular cars and trucks, so claiming the Prius is the worst performing car is over the top.

Sales are Bad
Not that a 48% sales decline is anything to be happy about.

But at the same time, this is an indication of how numbers can lie. Having kept track of hybrid sales for a couple of years now, I think I can understand why the numbers are declining on the Prius.

First, the cost of gas has gone way down in the past month. That alone should relieve some of the pressure on more fuel economic cars. Until gas prices go up, at least some people are going to be opting for less fuel efficient cars.

The Prius may be the most inexpensive full hybrid on the road to buy right now, but that doesn't make it cheap to buy. It's price puts it above the line for a lot people.  In the current economy, anything that might be considered a luxury is being put off.

Also, despite the downturn in sales, hybrids are not getting discounted. I've even seen some reports of dealerships charging more than the asking price, even now. Other cars are getting discounts and special financing deals, but not hybrids.

The Prius is about to move into a next generation. For those who know, waiting until the next generation Prius is on the road is a smart move.

One last point (and this may be the biggest one).  Last November, sales on hybrids (not just the Prius) were up 82%.  The Prius was up by 109%!  After moving their Camry Hybrid production into Kentucky, Toyota was able to increase production of the Prius and November's sales showed how well they were doing in filling in the back orders they had.

Prius is Still at the Top
Despite all the downward pressure on car sales, the Prius is still one of the top selling cars in the US.  Toyota has very little inventory on the Prius. They are selling the ones they have, without any attempt to increase production. To put it simply, Toyota is selling every Prius they make.

If we take the list at Treehugger at face value, it's #16 on the list of all cars, trucks and SUVs.  If we just restrict to cars, it's in the top 10.   Sales are down 10% on the year.  I wonder how many other cars can say that's all they're down.

I'd have to say Treehugger Lloyd Alter is getting this one wrong. I know his point is how Ford and GM aren't exactly getting everything wrong as compared to Toyota or Honda. But that doesn't mean his claims about the Prius are right.

Dodge Challenger Auction to Benefit Shriners Hospitals for Children

I normally limit all my posts to those regarding hybrid cars, but an auction on a Dodge Challenger to benefit the Shriners Hospitals for Children is worth the attention I can give it.

Boston, MA - An iconic muscle car of the 1970s, the Dodge Challenger, is back after a 35-year absence and a limited-edition 2008 Dodge Challenger SRT8 is up for auction on eBay through Sunday, Dec. 7. Proceeds of the online auction will benefit Shriners Hospitals for Children.

The New England Dodge Dealers Association donated the car because the group wants to raise awareness and funds for Shriners Hospitals for Children. "The decision to donate the Challenger SRT8 was based on the positive personal experiences many of our dealers and the association's Board members have had with the Shriners and Shriners Hospitals," said New England Dodge Dealer Association President Frank Brody. "Shriners Hospitals for Children is truly a benevolent organization that has proven they really want to make a difference for children."

The Dodge Challenger SRT8, which is #234 of the 6,400 produced in 2008, goes zero to 60 in five seconds and is loaded with options, including a 6.1 liter HEMI® V-8 engine with 425 horsepower, GPS navigation system, Keyless Go Entry, MyGIG multimedia system and UConnect hands-free communication.

This car is on display at the New England International Auto Show at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center, located at 415 Summer Street, Boston, MA 02210 from Wednesday, Dec. 3 to Sunday, Dec. 7. The winning bid will be announced at the show on Dec. 7 at 6 p.m.

For a link to the auction site, go to www.BeAChallenger.com.

For more information on the New England International Auto Show please visit http://www.paragonexpo.com/189.html?flash=1.