Thursday, 7 May 2009

Audi A3 Hybrid in 2012

Motor Authority says Audi is confirming an A3 Hybrid for 2012.  The new hybrid from Audi will use the twindrive from Volkswagen, the same hybrid system to be used in the Volkswagen Golf.

Top speed will be about 105 mph. Power will come from an electric motor with 40 hp and a small gas or diesel engine with 105hp. This will be an electric-range extended vehicle (E-REV), somewhat like the Chevy Volt.

The electric motor will be powered by a 12kWh lithium-ion (Li-Ion) battery pack capable of 30 miles of all electric drive.

Audi is considering a $50,000 price tag on this plug-in hybrid capable of 113 mpg.

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

Which is More Popular in Google, the Honda Insight or the Toyota Prius

Google just came out with an embeddable gadget for their search trends, so being curious I went and checked it out.  Turns out the Honda Insight may just be more popular than the Toyota Prius, at least for the past month.



So what about some other hybrid competitions? There's the newcomer, the Ford Fusion Hybrid against the other sedan hybrids from Toyota, Honda and Nissan.



Seems like the Honda Civic Hybrid and Ford Fusion Hybrid are leaving the Toyota Camry Hybrid and Nissan Altima Hybrid in the dust.  Not surprising given the sales numbers this past month.  Trendiness tends to favor the new.

Or perhaps you think there's a relationship between hybrid cars and fuel prices? Click on the max value to see a not-so-surprising relationship between the two terms in google.



Feel free to play with the gadgets or get your own.  What trends would you like to see?

Cash for Clunkers Becoming More Likely

A new attempt to pass a cash for clunkers bill through Congress is becoming more likely. The Obama administration and the House have worked to create a new bill that seems likely to pass.

The Cash for Clunkers is a government funded program that would give new car buyers a voucher to buy more fuel efficient cars. Up to one million customers could qualify for up to one year. The older cars would need to get under 18 mpg in combined driving to qualify.

A new car would have to get at least 22 mpg to qualify for a $3,500 voucher, but if the new car is rated to get 10 mpg more than the old one, the voucher would increase to $4,500.

New trucks would need to get 18 mpg and be at least 2 mpg better than the old truck, while a 5 mpg gain would again raise the voucher to $4,500.

Total costs right now are estimated at $3-4 billion.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a press release, said she is looking forward to working "...with the Senate to pass this critical job-creating, energy independence legislation through the Congress so that we can send it to President Obama's desk for his signature."

She feels "'Cash for clunkers' is a common-sense proposal that will help provide a shot in the arm for the American auto industry at a crucial time for our economy, reduce the emissions that cause climate change, and make America more energy independent. By helping Americans trade in their old, less fuel efficient cars and trucks for newer, higher mileage vehicles, consumers will save money at the pump, help protect our planet, and create and save jobs for American auto workers."

With such a low mpg barrier, hybrids may see some benefit, but not a lot from the Cash for Clunkers Program. If you look at the most fuel efficient cars, you can see that although hybrids dominate the top of the list, an 18 or 22 mpg is still pretty low.
under the deal, a consumer could turn in a clunker that gets 18 miles per gallon and get $3,500 to buy a car that just barely meets minimum emissions standards in the United States.
The Senate bill sets a higher standard of 27.5 mpg for passenger vehicles and 23.1 mpg for trucks.

The 'clunkers' would be destroyed, which irks some auto recyclers.  There is no age limit on the older cars, nor does the new car need to be a domestic vehicle, either built here or built by a domestic car company, which makes it unlike previous bills.

Also included in the measure are vouchers for work trucks (pick-up or cargo van weighing 8,500-10,000 pounds) could net a voucher for $3,500 for a new work truck in the same or lower wieght class. The vehicle would need to be pre-2002. There are no EPA mileage measures for these trucks; however, because newer models are cleaner than older models, the age requirement ensures that the trade will improve environmental quality. Consumers can also “trade down,” receiving a $3,500 voucher for trading in an older work truck and purchasing a pick-up or van weighing between 6,000-8,500 lbs. (Source: Treehugger)

GM Promises Plug-in Hybrid SUV

GM was supposed to have a plug-in hybrid Saturn Vue in 2011.  But with Saturn production ending, GM is re-arranging things.

General Motor's new product development chief, Tom Stephens, is now saying (source: The Associated Press: GM promises plug-in hybrid by early 2011) a new plug-in hybrid SUV in early 2011.  It will only be for fleet testing, but it would be there.  GM will conduct the testing with U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) and nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) fleets in early 2011. (source: autonews)

GM will be modifying their two-mode hybrid system with a larger battery pack and plug.  The plug-in Vue was expected to get 35 mpg or better, but it's uncertain what a new SUV plug-in will get.

Ford is already testing a plug-in version of their SUV Escape and Toyota is already road testing a plug-in Prius, so GM is a bit behind with this announcement.  But I guess they had to think about how they were going to compensate for the loss of the plug-in Vue.

No word on what brand or vehicle would get the plug-in technology.

When Plug-in Hybrid Get 50 MPG

In most cars, 50 mpg would be terrific.  In a plug-in hybrid, 50 mpg is half of what you could expect.  Wired has an article on the real-world testing going on in test fleets across the nation and specifically in Seattle.  It seems the results are disappointing to some.

But why are the drivers seeing only 50 mpg?  It should be possible to get 100-150 mpg in these cars.
So what gives with all these fleets struggling to get half that?

EV advocates have a simple answer – the drivers aren’t being told how to maximize fuel efficiency, and they’d don’t care because they aren't paying for the gas.

To get the most from plug-in hybrids, EV advocates say, you've got to us a light touch on the accelerator, mind your speed and plug it in at every opportunity to keep the batteries fully charged.

"Drive impact is really huge," said Francfort. "Aggressive driving effects the mileage of all cars, but with plug-in hybrids there’s more of an impact."
That makes a lot of sense to me.  City employees that aren't interested in plugging the cars in overnight (or whenever they can) can turn a plug-in hybrid car into a hybrid car.  In that case, you can expect to get hybrid car mpg numbers, like they're seeing in Seattle. 

Note also how the hybrids (not plug-ins) are getting 11 mpg less than the plug-ins.  That shows no one has bothered to teach the drivers how to drive the hybrids in the first place.  But to be fair, even google's rechargeit program is seeing the same issue.  Their plug-in Prius is getting 55.4 mpg, about 12 mpg better than their Prius.

Another problem is how little difference there is between 50 and 100 mpg.  I've talked about miles per gallon in hybrids before.  If we stick to the mpg scale, you would think that going from 50 to 100 mpg means you're driving twice as efficient.  But it just doesn't work that way.  Over 15,000 miles, the difference between 50 mpg and 100 mpg is 150 gallons of fuel (or about $300 in savings at today's $2 a gallon price).  Going from 25 to 50 saves you 300 gallons ($600 in savings).  It just isn't a linear function and it's important to keep that in mind.

Monday, 4 May 2009

Hybrid Car Sales, April 2009

Hybrid car sales were down by 47.8% this month, with a total of 20,819 units sold.  Not one hybrid model showed a positive increase compared to last year, although Ford and Honda both increased hybrid sales with new models on the showroom floors.

Overall, sales were pulled down by slow Prius sales, as customers are seen to be holding off in anticipation of the next generation Prius which is out for sale in May/June.  New Insight sales were strong, if not as remarkable as elsewhere in the world. Ford noted the strong sales of the Fusion and Fusion hybrid in their press release, but still, sales were below their target.

But probably the biggest story (other than the overall malaise) is the drop in market share for Toyota, as Honda and Ford pushed ahead with their new hybrids.

Toyota v. Honda, the new Hybrid War
April continued a general slide in all auto sales, with a decline of 34.3%.  Hybrid sales, as always followed Prius sales, and Prius sales have been slow the past few months.  Sales of the Prius this month were down over 61%, but relief may be on the way.

Anticipation of the new Prius, the economy and lower gas prices have kept buyers away.  The next generation Prius, however, reportedly has 40 - 50,000 pre-order already and Toyota has already increased production numbers in anticipation of a large demand.

Honda sold over 2 thousand of the new Insight, which indicates a strong start to their new dedicated hybrid in its first full sales month.  But that number is way below the sales goal.  If they intend to sell 100,000 Insights in the US a year, they need to sell 4X as many.  That's going to be hard going up against the new Prius and the economy.

GM, Nissan and Ford
GM sales remained stable, maybe even a little bit stronger than in the past few months.  But comparatively speaking, they are still far behind Toyota and Honda. 

Nissan sales fell dramatically, but it's always hard to tell what that's an indicator of.  With the Altima hybrid only being sold in limited areas, it could be Nissan is losing sales to the new Ford Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid.  Or it could be simply a limitation on production.

Ford showed a net gain in hybrid sales, although the number of Escapes and Mariners sold were way down (40% decrease). 

Overall Hybrid Market Changes
Strong sales of the hybrid Fusion and Milan helped Ford increase their market share to 11%, while Honda's new Insight helped them go from 16.8% to 26.2% of the market.  In January, 3 out of every 4 (78.7%) hybrids sold in the US were made by Toyota.  This month Toyota was down to 58.7% of the market.  It may be temporary, but it shows how much more competition there is, and it's not going to be easy for Toyota to hold on to it's hybrid image.

By the end of June, we'll have a much better grasp of the new hybrid market.  There are two big questions.  1) Will the Prius retain it's hold, or will the Insight break Toyota's hold on the hybrid market.  And 2) will there be a big enough space for all of the midsize sedan hybrids (Fusion, Milan, Camry, Altima, Civic).  It seems like the Camry and Altima are being pushed down, as the Fusion/Milan push their way in.  And the Civic seems to have benefitted a great deal from the new Insight being sold next to it.  By June, as the new Prius takes hold, we'll have a much better idea about all of this.


Monthly Sales April 2008 April 2009 % Change
Make Model N % N %
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 0.0 0 0 0
Ford Escape/Mariner 1,907 4.8 1,134 5.4 -40.5
Ford Fusion/Milan 0 0.0 1,165 5.6 0.0
GM Escalade 0 0.0 171 0.8 0.0
GM Silverado/Sierra 0 0.0 95 0.5 0.0
GM Tahoe/Yukon 0 0.0 352 1.7 0.0
Honda Accord 25 0.1 0 0.0 -100.0
Honda Civic 4,324 10.8 3,361 16.1 -22.3
Honda Insight 0 0.0 2,096 10.1 0.0
Nissan Altima 801 2.0 222 1.1 -72.3
Toyota Camry 6,678 16.7 2,198 10.6 -67.1
Toyota GS 450h 82 0.2 33 0.2 -59.8
Toyota Highlander 2,578 6.5 933 4.5 -63.8
Toyota LS600hL 122 0.3 19 0.1 -84.4
Toyota Prius 21,757 54.5 8,385 40.3 -61.5
Toyota RX 400h 1,624 4.1 655 3.1 -59.7
Total 39,898 20,819 -47.8
Cumulative Sales Cumulative 2008 Cumulative 2009 % Change
Make Model N % N %
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Ford Escape/Mariner 7,132 5.8 4,659 6.5 -34.7
Ford Fusion/Milan 0 0.0 1,616 2.2 0.0
GM Escalade 0 0.0 478 0.7 0.0
GM Silverado/Sierra 0 0.0 217 0.3 0.0
GM Tahoe/Yukon 0 0.0 1,885 2.6 0.0
Honda Accord 168 0.1 1 0.0 -99.4
Honda Civic 11,646 9.5 8,668 12.0 -25.6
Honda Insight 0 0.0 2,665 3.7 0.0
Nissan Altima 2,635 2.1 2,163 3.0 -17.9
Toyota Camry 21,479 17.5 7,973 11.1 -62.9
Toyota GS 450h 288 0.2 138 0.2 -52.1
Toyota Highlander 8,898 7.2 3,910 5.4 -56.1
Toyota LS600hL 452 0.4 99 0.1 -78.1
Toyota Prius 64,666 52.6 32,662 45.4 -49.5
Toyota RX 400h 5,553 4.5 4,878 6.8 -12.2
Total 122,917 72,012 -41.4

Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, March 2009
Hybrid Car Sales, April 2008

Friday, 1 May 2009

2009 and 2010 Hybrid Cars

In 2009, there are several different types of hybrid cars on the road from many different car makers. It's amazing what a difference 10 years can make.   The list of hybrid cars has grown trememdously over the past few years. 

The major car makers who build and sell hybrid vehicles today are Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM and Nissan. Chrysler had two hybrid cars on the road last year (Tahoe and Yukon), but quickly retired them.

There have been some exciting changes in the hybrid car market in the past year. Just keep in mind that if fuel efficiency is your thing, although hybrids may top the most fuel efficient cars of 2009,  but that doesn't mean that all hybrids are built for fuel effiicency.



What's New For 2009 in the Hybrid Car Market
The 2010 Toyota Prius which is being released in May 2009 is undergoing a major change. The latest generation in the number one selling hybrid has seem some remarkable improvements inside and out, but just a minor uptick in fuel efficiency. But that keeps the Prius at the top of the hybrid market, although Honda has decided to challenge that supremacy with the Insight.

The 2010 Honda Insight (new) in 2009 is very much unlike the Honda Insight (retired) from ten years ago. The original Insight was a fuel efficiency king, but with just two-seats, the low-production original was never very practical and never really took off. The new Insight is a four-seater with more space and more fun. At 40 mpg combined, it's also one of the most fuel efficient cars on the road, while also being the cheapest hybrid to buy. Although, don't be fooled by the adds you see. This car is still expensive at just under $20,000. It's just cheap by hybrid car standards.

The new Honda Insight  is the only car out there with a reasonable expectation to challenge the Toyota Prius supremacy.  With the right price tag and very good fuel efficiency ratings from the EPA, the Insight is set to make a fight of it.  But even though Toyota has been fighting back with price-cuts on the new Prius, don't expect the king to give up it's throne anytime soon.

Other new models in 2009
The 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid are all new and even better than you might expect. Ford may not have the cache of Toyota and Honda when it comes to fuel efficiency or hybrid technology, but they are truly right there with them. They've just taken a more conservative approach to hybrids. Instead of building a dedicated hybrid like the Prius or Insight, Ford has once again used their hybrid technology to expand on an already successful vehicle. In this case, the hybrid option on the Ford Fusion beats the Toyota Camry Hybrid city mpg by 8 mpg.

GM is releasing the Sierra and Silverado Hybrids, the first full dual mode hybrid trucks to hit the road.  Like the other dual-mode hybrids, you can expect a 25% fuel economy jump with the hybrid engine, but you should also expect a big price tag to come with it.  GM, like the other car companies, packages their American hybrid line-up with lots of other goodies to soften the blow, so don't go into the dealership expecting these hybrid trucks to look like your father's bare-bones pick-up.

Mercedes is bringing the 'most economical luxury car with a gasoline engine' to light with the S400 Hybrid in August/September.  A mild hybrid with a lithium-ion battery pack, the Mercedes Hybrid is full of confilicting ideals.  Luxury vs fuel economy and an all new very powerful battery pack that most other hybrid car makers have been working at for years to bring to market.  But at 29 mpg, you might not care about the new type of battery that's helping to bring it about.

Saturn Hybrids are a mystery at this point.  GM has said they are going to stop building Saturn vehicles, so the dual-mode Vue and plug-in Vue due out this year are indefinitely on hold

But in the meantime, GM is bringing a GMC Yukon Denali Hybrid to dealerships in the next month or so. After seeing the success of the Escalade Hybrid (30% of new Escalade buyers are opting for the hybrid), GM had to improve their luxury Yukon by dropping in a hybrid engine.  Like the Escalade Hybrid, you should expect luxury on top of luxury, but don't short change the fuel efficiency.  A 25% improvement in a gas hog like the Yukon is nothing to turn your nose up at.  Although if you can afford to think about the Yukon Denali, you may be turning your nose up anyways  ;-)

Lexus is bringing their all new dedicated hybrid model, the 2010 HS 250h to showrooms in 2010.  Toyota believes that 60% of all entry-luxury car buyers would opt for a hybrid if it was available.  And with the HS 250h, which is based on the Prius, Toyota/Lexus wants to give them that option.  Lexus says the HS 250h has a coefficient drag of only 0.27 and should get 30% better than any other Lexus mpg when it gets its rating.  If you wanted to buy a Prius for its fuel efficiency and its green credentials, but wanted it to be even more luxurious than it is, then this will be the hybrid for you.


What's Old and New for Hybrid Cars in 2009
Unlike the hybrid vehicles listed above, these hybrid cars aren't quite new, but don't expect them to be missing that new car smell.  Most of these models are still very young, indeed.   These following models have seen a bit of an upgrade in 2009.

The 2009 Honda Civic Hybrid saw a few minor improvements in 2009.  Still there and still going strong, but never quite taking off in sales.  The Civic Hybrid is not quite as fuel efficient as the Prius, not quite as roomy, but it's still a good option for the price.  The Civic Hybrid has some new options, but mostly you know what you're getting when you buy a Honda Civic.

The 2010 Ford Escape Hybrid and Mercury Mariner Hybrid may be overshadowed by the newer hybrids in the Ford line-up.  But they are still the most fuel efficient SUVs on the road, and in 2009, have a little more power to speak about, too.  The hybrid system has seen quite an improvement over the older generation, probably due to the process of creating the Ford Fusion Hybrid. 

The 2009 Chevy Malibu Hybrid is a mild hybrid, with the BAS system from GM.  You can expect start-stop technology, a slight increase in fuel economy, and all the basics you would expect from the Malibu.  Chevy has been proud of their Malibu so far, just don't expect too much from their hybrid option.  The 2009 Malibu Hybrid was introduced in 2008 with a 2009 Model Year (MY).


Other Hybrid Cars for 2009
At the end of 2006, there were 10 hybrid models on the road from the major automakers.  Now there are 14 more when we include the mild hybrids from GM.  Modern hybrids are still a young technology, but the options have been quickly expanding over the past few years.

The Toyota Highlander Hybrid  is still one of the best selling hybrids out there.  The Toyota Camry Hybrid is the car everyone else wants to compare themselves to when they don't want to compare themselves agains the Prius.  Built by Toyota, you know these two hybrids are going to be well built and well appointed.  They may not get the Prius reputation, but they're still more fuel efficient than their gas-only models.

Toyota also has the GS 450h, RX 400h and LS 600h l. These luxury hybrids tend to focus on performance and luxury, rather than fuel economy.  But they are still full hybrids.  You just get more power and performance for less engine.





The Nissan Altima Hybrid is still out there, but with Nissan taking a very conservative approach to hybrids, the Altima can be hard to find.  Limited to eight states in sales, the Altima Hybrid is built using the Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive.  Which means you can buy the Toyota Camry Hybrid or the Nissan Altima Hybrid and know that you're getting the same thing even if the packaging is different.  Nissan is going to come to market with their own hybrid technology, but it's going to be an Infiniti.

GM is losing their mild hybrid Vue and Aura as they close out Saturn. 

The Escalade Hybrid is still big, still luxurious, and still more fuel efficient.  This may be the best hybrid option from GM, since the buyers of the Escalade aren't going to balk at paying $3-$10K more for the hybrid engine.  It just means they get to 'eat their cake, too.'

GM also has the Yukon and Tahoe Hybrids.  Sales haven't taken off for these hybrid SUVs, but then again, this has been a tough year on SUVs in that price range, and GM for that matter.  It's hard to tell if these hybrid SUVs will find their niche or not.



What About 2010?
2009 is going to be the year of the Insight and Prius.  But 2010 is going to be about plugging your car in.  The Chevy Volt and various competitors are going to be there and be loud as they can about it.  The first to market may not be the one to last (see the original Insight).  But the first to market is certainly going to get credit for it.  And that may be the biggest thing right now given the political climate. 

Unfortunately for the rest of us, you should also expect plug-ins to remain out of reach for quite some time.  In order to get 40 miles or more of range on all electric power, the battery packs in these upcoming cars are going to be huge.  Which means they are going to be very expensive cars to buy.

What about Fisker/Tesla?
There are some other hybrids out there today, but they are from smaller car makers.  The Fisker Karma, for instance, like the Tesla Model S, has made quite a splash over the past year.  But the number of cars made and sold by these automakers is just going to continue to be small (and expensive!) for the foreseeable future. 

Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Hyundai, etc... are certainly big enough to make a difference.  They just haven't yet.  The price to enter the hybrid market is still high.  Expect more hybrid cars from these auto makers in the coming years, even if they don't make a lot of them.  Same from the Chinese car makers who are trying hard to break in to the hybrid market.