Tuesday, 14 July 2009

Lexus Is Already Six Months Behind

"Thanks to the green-car tax and a hybrid boom fanned by the Prius in Japan, we've already gotten 3,000 orders," Senior Managing Director Toshio Furutani said at the launch.

With a sales goal of 500 units a month, that puts them six months ahead with their new Lexus HS 250h, the first dedicated hybrid from Lexus. It's also the cheapest hybrid starting at 3.95 million yen ($42,460) in the Lexus line-up while also being eligible for the maximum 267,000 yen ($2,870) tax break in Japan.

The tax breaks have proven a boon to Toyota and Honda as they've raced to outsell each other there.  It's put hybrids on top of the sales charts and created massive waiting lists for the new Prius and Honda Insight.  Given the market right now, it's no wonder Toyota and Honda have begun focusing more on hybrids than ever before.

New Honda Chief Says Everyone is Going to Go the Way of the Hybrids

Talking about the upcoming CR-Z and Fit Hybrid, new Honda Chief Executive Takanobu Ito said "Bringing hybrids quickly to customers will be a major focus of our activities." (Source:Reuters)

He also noted the engineers that used to work on the Formula One team are now working on hybrid development. Honda is now working on a new hybrid system with two electric motors for medium to large sized vehicles.

Given that Japan outsold the US for hybrid car sales in June, it's not surprising to see the two main competitors from Japan (Honda and Toyota) are focusing more and more on hybrid development and sales.

The CR-Z hybrid sports car will be introduced in February, 2010, while the Fit hybrid isn't due until the end of 2010. I believe both dates indicate their introduction to Japan, with a rollout in the US to follow after.  The EU rollout date is still tenuous for the CR-Z as 'towards the end of the year.'

More interesting to me, is how Ito is attributing the slow start of the Insight in the US (they are under their own sales goal so far) to a prioritization set by Honda, not by demand. Apparently, Honda is filling orders in Japan first, where the company can make a bigger profit due to the yen's strength against the dollar.

Lexus Contest to Drive HS 250h

Lexus is holding a social contest to see who wants to drive the new 250h the most. Contestants are posting their profiles at DriveHS.com, where others can come and vote for them. The top vote getter will win a one year lease of a HS 250h, a weekend at a Fairmont Resort and a Lexus Hybrid Living gift package.

The next two runner up will get a weekend at a Fairmont Resort, plus the week-long drive of the HS and a Lexus Hybrid Living Package, while the next 98 vote-getters will get get a week-long drive of the HS and a Lexus Hybrid Living gift package.

Lexus is encouraging those who enter to "host a voting party, joining facebook.com/lexus to do some campaigning, and posting a video on YouTube".  The contest ends on July 31.

Anyone who submits a vote will be entered into a random drawing to win the use of an HS for a year.

"There’s no other luxury car like the HS 250h hybrid and we know that people who get behind the wheel will be amazed by its innovation, luxury and sustainability," said Dave Nordstrom, Lexus vice president of marketing. "This promotion is an opportunity to introduce people to the HS and it gets them excited about the possibility of driving it."


And yes, I entered the contest.  Take a moment and vote me up.  I'd love to give a personal review of this one.

Monday, 13 July 2009

Peugeot and Mitsubishi Are Not Working Together to Develop Hybrids

Peugeot Citroen has denied rumors they were working with Mitsubishi Motors to develop hybrid cars.

"We deny the information. We are working well with Mitsubishi on electric vehicles," a PSA Peugeot Citroen spokesman told Reuters. He added "we have our own research into plug-in hybrids."

Peugeot has been working with Bosch to build a hybrid diesel and is expected sometime in 2011.

Hybrid Car Sales, June 2009

As I mentioned a week and a half ago, sales were up this month for hybrids, for the first time since April, 2008.  Spurred by the new Fusion and Milan Hybrids, along with the new generation Prius, hybrid car sales increased 4.5% from last year.  Not a huge gain, but compared to the overall market, a huge difference.

Cumulative sales for the year are still down 33% from last year.

Prius sales were up 10.5% from last year as the new model Prius started arriving at dealerships.  The all new Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan Hybrids had a strong start with 2,244 units sold in June.  Honda also had strong sales of the new Insight with 2,079 units sold.

Overall, Ford and Honda took 14.4% of the hybrid market each, while Toyota's share dropped to 66%.  Last year, their share was 73.2%, which may indicate a distinct shift in the consumers awareness of other hybrids.  Not that Toyota is going anywhere, since over half of all hybrids sold were once again a Prius.

But it's not all good news, as every other hybrid model except for the Prius was down from a year ago.  If it wasn't for the new models being sold, hybrid car sales would still be down by 14%.  It's important to keep in mind how strong sales still were in June 2008.  High gas prices had the Prius down to a 4 day turn around on dealerships.  But it turns out the drop in June, 2008 was an early indicator of the troubles to come as the economy started to wilt.  People may have been willing to line up for the Prius, but other models were beginning to suffer.


Monthly Sales June 2008 June 2009 % Change
Make Model N % N %
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 0.0 0 0 0
Ford Escape/Mariner 1,912 7.9 1,405 5.5 -26.5
Ford Fusion/Milan 0 0.0 2,244 8.8 0.0
GM Escalade 0 0.0 155 0.6 0.0
GM Silverado/Sierra 0 0.0 123 0.5 0.0
GM Tahoe/Yukon 547 2.2 392 1.5 -28.3
Honda Accord 7 0.0 0 0.0 -100.0
Honda Civic 2,710 11.1 1,583 6.2 -41.6
Honda Insight 0 0.0 2,079 8.2 0.0
Nissan Altima 1,333 5.5 666 2.6 -50.0
Toyota Camry 3,054 12.6 2,093 8.2 -31.5
Toyota GS 450h 73 0.3 27 0.1 -63.0
Toyota Highlander 1,511 6.2 1,098 4.3 -27.3
Toyota LS600hL 73 0.3 31 0.1 -57.5
Toyota Prius 11,765 48.4 12,998 51.1 10.5
Toyota RX 400h 1,330 5.5 527 2.1 -60.4
Total 24,315 25,421 4.5
Cumulative Sales Cumulative 2008 Cumulative 2009 % Change
Make Model N % N %
Chrysler Aspen/Durango 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Ford Escape/Mariner 11,422 6.3 7,891 6.5 -30.9
Ford Fusion/Milan 0 0.0 5,939 4.9 0.0
GM Escalade 0 0.0 840 0.7 0.0
GM Silverado/Sierra 0 0.0 470 0.4 0.0
GM Tahoe/Yukon 1,136 0.6 2,711 2.2 138.6
Honda Accord 191 0.1 1 0.0 -99.5
Honda Civic 19,032 10.4 12,328 10.1 -35.2
Honda Insight 0 0.0 7,524 6.2 0.0
Nissan Altima 5,575 3.1 3,174 2.6 -43.1
Toyota Camry 30,532 16.7 13,007 10.6 -57.4
Toyota GS 450h 459 0.3 208 0.2 -54.7
Toyota Highlander 13,053 7.2 6,359 5.2 -51.3
Toyota LS600hL 637 0.3 157 0.1 -75.4
Toyota Prius 91,442 50.1 55,751 45.6 -39.0
Toyota RX 400h 9,038 5.0 5,798 4.7 -35.8
Total 182,517 122,158 -33.1

Ford and Honda have shown that Toyota does not have to be the only hybrid maker.  It remains to be seen if 'new GM' will break through with their two-mode hybrids.  More than likely, we'll just have to wait and see what happens with the Volt at the end of 2010.  And we're still waiting on Nissan to show up with a hybrid of their own.

Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, May 2009
Hybrid Car Sales, June 2008

Wednesday, 1 July 2009

Hybrid Car Sales Will be Up for June

I don't have all the data I need to make my normal monthly report on hybrid car sales, but so far, the numbers look good. With just the reported values from Honda, Toyota and Ford, hybrid car sales so far are at 24,055. Total hybrid car sales in June, 2008 were 24,315 units sold. 

So, unless Nissan and GM sales come in under 260 units, hybrid car sales will be up for June, the first time they have been positive since April, 2008.

The numbers so far:

June, 2008 June, 2009 % Change
Ford 1,912 3,649 91%
GM 547 - -
Honda 2,717 3,662 35%
Nissan 1,333 - -
Toyota 17,806 16,744 -6%
Total 24,315 24,055 -1%


Prius sales were up 10% from last year, but most of the increase for 2009 comes from new models (Ford Fusion, Mercury Milan, and Honda Insight) being sold.

Hybrids and Highly Popular Models

This is a bit of a free thinking post, so forgive me if I ramble.

Kelley Blue Book released the 'most researched vehicles' for the first half of 2009 and there aren't many surprises.
1. Honda Accord
2. Honda Civic
3. Toyota Camry
4. Honda CR-V
5. Toyota Corolla
6. Toyota Highlander
7. Nissan Altima
8. Toyota RAV4
9. Toyota Prius
10. Ford Mustang
11. Honda Pilot
12. MAZDA3
13. Honda Odyssey
14. Ford Fusion
15. Ford Escape
16. Chevrolet Camaro
17. Volkswagen Jetta
18. Toyota Sienna
19. Chevrolet Malibu
20. Lexus RX350

What I found interesting is how many of the vehicles have hybrid models. Eight of the 20 models listed have (or just are) hybrids. The Accord, Civic, Camry, Highlander, Altima, Prius, Fusion, Escape, and Malibu all have hybrid engines.

To me that indicates two things.
1) People in first half of 2009 are still very interested in fuel economy and
2) automakers are making hybrids out of already popular models.

This is something I've noticed before, but I thought it would make a good discussion for today. Part of the reason (I believe) automakers pick high production models to insert hybrid engines into is to draw attention to the original model, making them more competitive.

Since one company did it, the others feel like they have to follow suit. Once Honda and Toyota picked the Camry, Civic and Accord; Nissan, Ford and GM had to follow suit with the Altima, Fusion and Malibu.

After all, they want to make sure the word gets out they are building hybrids. Given the profit margin on the first generation of hybrids (i.e. a loss), you might expect them to pick low production models. That way they would be able to justify not building too many of them (and losing money on each of them). That's how important the PR of hybrid technology is to the car companies.

As an aside, it's the initial research cost they have to overcome. Ford, Toyota and Honda are making money on their hybrid cars at this point. Since they were in the game first, they have been selling hybrids long enough to make a profit. GM decided to build cheaper hybrids, so it's possible they could have made money on their mild systems.

In order to keep the PR up, while minimizing losses, the car companies have, in the past, followed several different strategies. Ford and Nissan limited production of their hybrids as much as they can. And Nissan didn't develop their own hybrid engine, they just buy them from Toyota.

GM made a cheaper hybrid and talked as much as they could about it. Then they built a really expensive version or their SUVs and trucks. Unfortunately for them, the SUV and truck market have taken a big hit over the past couple of years. Plus, fuel efficient mavens don't tend to buy SUVs and trucks.

But Toyota and Honda decided they had to go for it, and spent the money to create the best hybrids they could. Honda has experimented with several different formulas (performance hybrid - Accord, fuel efficient hybrid - Civic, cheaper hybrid - Insight, most fuel efficient two-seater - original Insight). Toyota decided to stick with their winning strategy (Prius).

And so it's these two companies that have shown the way. Honda has shown what doesn't work more than what does work so far. But both have continued their research and cut costs in each successive generation of hybrid engines. It was the harder way to do it, but they have done it.

And now the others are playing catch up. GM has decided to try and 'leap-frog' the others with the development of the Volt. Ford has finally developed the Fusion and Milan hybrids (although they remain cautious and continue to limit production). Nissan is still behind, but hopes to have their own hybrid system soon.